What is the adoption curve of innovation, and how does it work?

Concept

Everett Rogers popularized the concept of innovation adoption, explaining how new technologies spread among people. He identified key influencing factors, including the elements of diffusion, the process of innovation generation, attributes of innovations, rates of diffusion, the diffusion curve, adopter categories, and other related influences. The diffusion curve, which follows a normal probability distribution and the S-curve, illustrates the progression of technology innovation from development to market adoption. This curve encompasses five distinct adopter categories, showing how innovations are gradually embraced by different segments of the population.

These five groups of buyers and developers are categorized as follows:

  1. Innovators: Tech enthusiasts and pioneers.
  2. Early Adopters: Visionaries and forward-thinking entrepreneurs.
  3. Early Majority: Pragmatic users who seek practical solutions.
  4. Late Majority: Cautious individuals who are skeptical or conservative.
  5. Laggards: Traditionalists who are the last to adopt new technologies.

Adopter categories represent different members of a social system, each with a unique perception of innovation. These categories differ in several aspects, such as the degree and speed at which they adopt new ideas, the factors driving their adoption decisions, their attitudes toward innovation, desired value, preferred adoption channels, and the timing of their adoption.

Background

Everett Rogers argued the diffusion theory of innovation in the book ‘Diffusion of Innovations in 1962 (first edition). The latest edition of this book reached its fifth edition in 2003.

How does it work?

Everett Rogers’s book “Diffusion of Innovation” argues innovation generation, adoption, and categories, as per the following details (Everett Rogers, 2003)1:

Steps for innovation generation

  • Identification of Problems: The process begins with recognizing a problem or need, which becomes a priority when it reaches a level of social importance that warrants research.
  • Research: Technological innovations often stem from research, which involves original investigations aimed at advancing scientific knowledge without immediate practical application. The outcomes of this research can be applied to solve real-world problems through applied research. Lead users often play a critical role in innovation by developing new ideas, creating prototypes, and then persuading manufacturers to produce and market these innovations.
  • Development: Following research, the development stage involves transforming a new idea into a tangible form designed to meet the needs of potential adopters. This stage includes crafting a solution, creating a prototype, and testing it in the marketplace to validate its effectiveness.
  • Commercialization: This stage involves efforts to produce, package, market, and distribute a product that embodies the innovation. Commercialization is typically undertaken by private firms. A key moment in this process is the decision to disseminate the innovation to potential adopters.
  • Diffusion: Finally, the innovation enters the diffusion phase, where it is adopted and its impact becomes evident. The innovation spreads through the market, following a lifecycle that includes stages such as introduction, growth, maturity, and eventual decline.

Attributes of Innovation Adoption

Individuals’ perceptions of an innovation often serve as predictors of its adoption rate, or the relative speed at which members of a social system embrace the innovation. Several factors influence this rate of adoption, including (1) the type of innovation decision being made, (2) the nature of the communication channels used to spread the innovation, (3) the characteristics of the social system, and (4) the efforts of change agents in promoting and diffusing the innovation.

Innovations have five key attributes: 

  • Relative advantage: The degree to which an innovation is perceived as better than the idea it supersedes. The relative advantage of an innovation is positively related to the rate of adoption. 
  • Compatibility: The degree to which an innovation is perceived as consistent with the existing values, experiences, and needs of potential adopters. The compatibility of innovation is positively related to the rate of adoption. 
  • Complexity: The degree to which an innovation is perceived as relatively difficult to understand and use. The complexity of innovation is negatively related to the rate of adoption. 
  • Trialability: The degree to which an innovation may be experimented with limitedly. The trialability of innovation is positively related to its rate of adoption. 
  • Observability: The degree to which the results of an innovation are visible to others. The observability of innovation is positively related to its rate of adoption.

Adoption curve and categories

  • Adopter categories classify members of a social system based on their level of innovativeness. These categories are determined by several factors, including how early an individual adopts new ideas compared to others in the system, the motivations driving innovation adoption, the channels through which adoption occurs, the timing, and the overall rate of adoption.
  • Adopter distributions typically follow an S-shaped curve over time, approaching a normal distribution. The five innovation adopter categories are innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards.
  • Additionally, these adopter categories exhibit distinct communication behaviors. For example, earlier adopters tend to have higher social participation, more frequent interactions with change agents, greater exposure to communication channels (such as mass media and personal networks), a deeper knowledge of innovations, and higher levels of opinion leadership.

Author: Munther Al Dawood

For more reading: Book- Your Guide To Reach Innovation

www.growenterprise.co.uk

maldawood@growenterprise.co.uk

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Reference:

  1. Everett Rogers, 2003. Diffusion of innovations, fifth edition, Free Press, New York.
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